Estrela scraped a narrow home win against Estoril Praia last time out and are in for another tough 90 minutes against an experienced Portimonense side. Sergio's men have won each of the last two meetings between the sides and we are backing them to see off the Tricolores, who are without a win in their last four away matches across all competitions.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 50.07%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 25.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.52%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 0-1 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.
-0.41) 
0.12) 
