Given that both Gil Vicente and Portimonense narrowly avoided relegation last term, we expect the two sides to play out a tense and cagey stalemate on the opening weekend of the new campaign.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 45.23%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 27.91% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (8.56%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 0-1 (9.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.
-0.07) 
0.03) 
