SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 43.96%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 28.77% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.71%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 0-1 (9.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Portimonense |
43.96% ( 0.47) | 27.26% ( 0.06) | 28.77% ( -0.54) |
| Both teams to score 48.01% ( -0.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.94% ( -0.46) | 57.06% ( 0.45) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.05% ( -0.37) | 77.94% ( 0.36) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.22% ( 0.03) | 25.78% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 39.27% ( 0.05) | 60.73% ( -0.05) |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.69% ( -0.66) | 35.31% ( 0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 27.94% ( -0.69) | 72.06% ( 0.69) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Portimonense |
| 1-0 @ 12.33% ( 0.22) 2-1 @ 8.71% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 8.36% ( 0.16)3-1 @ 3.93% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.78% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 2.05% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.33% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.28% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.19% Total : 43.96% | 1-1 @ 12.84% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.16)2-2 @ 4.53% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.78% Total : 27.25% | 0-1 @ 9.48% ( -0) 1-2 @ 6.69% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 4.93% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 2.32% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.07% Total : 28.77% |
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