Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 61.38%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 16.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.58%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.5%), while for a Belenenses win it was 0-1 (5.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.