Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 51.38%. A win for Braga had a probability of 25.33% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.18%) and 2-0 (8.18%). The likeliest Braga win was 1-2 (6.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.