Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 50.44%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 23.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.68%) and 1-2 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.19%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 1-0 (7.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
