Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 69.81%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 11.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.62%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.8%), while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (4.05%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
