Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 39.89%. A win for FC Ufa had a probability of 32.12% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.19%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest FC Ufa win was 0-1 (10.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Akhmat Grozny would win this match.