Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Baltika win with a probability of 42.05%. A win for Fakel had a probability of 30.13% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Baltika win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (8.04%). The likeliest Fakel win was 0-1 (10.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Baltika would win this match.
-0.08) 
0.01) 
