SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fakel win with a probability of 40.56%. A win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 32.63% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fakel win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Nizhny Novgorod win was 0-1 (9.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fakel in this match.
| Result | ||
| Fakel | Draw | Nizhny Novgorod |
40.56% ( -0.17) | 26.81% ( 0) | 32.63% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 50.97% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.95% ( 0.03) | 54.05% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.52% ( 0.03) | 75.48% ( -0.03) |
| Fakel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.81% ( -0.07) | 26.18% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.73% ( -0.1) | 61.27% ( 0.1) |
| Nizhny Novgorod Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.05% ( 0.13) | 30.94% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.75% ( 0.15) | 67.24% ( -0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fakel | Draw | Nizhny Novgorod |
| 1-0 @ 10.85% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 8.53% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 7.28% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 3.81% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.25% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.24% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.28% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.09% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.23% Total : 40.55% | 1-1 @ 12.73% 0-0 @ 8.1% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.97% Total : 26.8% | 0-1 @ 9.5% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 7.47% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 5.57% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 2.92% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.18% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.02% Total : 32.63% |
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