SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 44.46%. A win for Fakel had a probability of 29.43% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9%) and 0-2 (7.98%). The likeliest Fakel win was 1-0 (8.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lokomotiv Moscow would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fakel | Draw | Lokomotiv Moscow |
29.43% ( 0.02) | 26.11% ( 0.04) | 44.46% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 51.78% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.61% ( -0.16) | 52.38% ( 0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.93% ( -0.14) | 74.07% ( 0.13) |
| Fakel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.65% ( -0.07) | 32.34% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.14% ( -0.08) | 68.85% ( 0.07) |
| Lokomotiv Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.53% ( -0.1) | 23.46% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.52% ( -0.14) | 57.48% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fakel | Draw | Lokomotiv Moscow |
| 1-0 @ 8.57% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 7.01% ( -0)2-0 @ 4.83% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.64% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.91% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.82% ( 0)Other @ 2.65% Total : 29.43% | 1-1 @ 12.41% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.59% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 5.08% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.1% | 0-1 @ 11% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 9% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 7.98% ( 0)1-3 @ 4.35% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 3.85% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.46% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.58% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.4% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.85% Total : 44.46% |
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