Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Khimki win with a probability of 37.23%. A win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 33.34% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Khimki win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.51%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Akhmat Grozny win was 0-1 (12.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Khimki would win this match.