Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 76.22%. A draw had a probability of 14.5% and a win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 9.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.47%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.67%), while for an Akhmat Grozny win it was 1-2 (2.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.