Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 51.54%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 21.97%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.52%) and 2-1 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.29%), while for an Arsenal Tula win it was 0-1 (8.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Akhmat Grozny would win this match.
