Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 43.94%. A win for Rostov had a probability of 30.16% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9%) and 0-2 (7.73%). The likeliest Rostov win was 1-0 (8.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that CSKA Moscow would win this match.