Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 50.54%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Rubin Kazan had a probability of 24.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.53%) and 2-0 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.79%), while for a Rubin Kazan win it was 0-1 (7.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.