Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 40.71%. A win for Rubin Kazan had a probability of 31.66% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (7.62%). The likeliest Rubin Kazan win was 0-1 (10.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sochi would win this match.