Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 44.07%. A draw had a probability of 29% and a win for Alcorcon had a probability of 26.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.04%) and 1-2 (8.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.13%), while for an Alcorcon win it was 1-0 (10.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.