Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cartagena win with a probability of 42.51%. A draw had a probability of 29% and a win for Lugo had a probability of 28.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cartagena win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.54%) and 2-1 (8.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.21%), while for a Lugo win it was 0-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cartagena would win this match.