Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fuenlabrada win with a probability of 42.99%. A draw had a probability of 31% and a win for Lugo had a probability of 26.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fuenlabrada win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.2%) and 2-1 (7.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.58%), while for a Lugo win it was 0-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fuenlabrada would win this match.