Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ponferradina win with a probability of 37.98%. A win for Lugo had a probability of 31.05% and a draw had a probability of 31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ponferradina win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.7%) and 1-2 (7.1%). The likeliest Lugo win was 1-0 (12.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.
