Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ponferradina win with a probability of 38.27%. A draw had a probability of 33% and a win for Malaga had a probability of 28.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ponferradina win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.05%) and 2-1 (6.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (16.96%), while for a Malaga win it was 0-1 (13.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.