Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malaga win with a probability of 36.32%. A win for Lugo had a probability of 32.59% and a draw had a probability of 31.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malaga win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.26%) and 2-1 (6.9%). The likeliest Lugo win was 0-1 (13.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.