Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugo win with a probability of 40.12%. A draw had a probability of 30.7% and a win for Ponferradina had a probability of 29.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.26%) and 2-1 (7.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.62%), while for a Ponferradina win it was 0-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.
