Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Girona win with a probability of 38.02%. A win for Lugo had a probability of 31.36% and a draw had a probability of 30.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Girona win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.65%) and 1-2 (7.22%). The likeliest Lugo win was 1-0 (12.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.