Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugo win with a probability of 35%. A draw had a probability of 32.6% and a win for Sporting Gijon had a probability of 32.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugo win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.07%) and 2-1 (6.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (16.17%), while for a Sporting Gijon win it was 0-1 (14.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.