Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ponferradina win with a probability of 48.84%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Castellon had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ponferradina win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.23%) and 2-1 (8.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.67%), while for a Castellon win it was 0-1 (9.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.