Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Numancia win with a probability of 40.87%. A draw had a probability of 30.2% and a win for Ponferradina had a probability of 28.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Numancia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.37%) and 2-1 (7.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.35%), while for a Ponferradina win it was 0-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Numancia in this match.