Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ponferradina win with a probability of 35.33%. A win for Almeria had a probability of 35.09% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ponferradina win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.24%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest Almeria win was 0-1 (12.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ponferradina would win this match.