Winless for weeks, Empoli have been unable to pick up many points at home, while hit-and-miss Roma are often below-par away.
The visitors' increasing options, following further recruitment in the current transfer window, mean that they can edge a close-fought game by a one-goal margin - at least keeping them in the top-six mix.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 56.64%. A win for Empoli had a probability of 23.21% and a draw had a probability of 20.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.89%) and 0-2 (6.75%). The likeliest Empoli win was 2-1 (5.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
