A 36-year wait for Serie A football has left Catanzaro fans desperate for a top-flight return, but having only shot up from the third tier last season, they may find the playoffs one step too far.
Cremonese can come away from the Ceravolo with a draw for the second time this term, setting up a chance to win the tie on home soil.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cremonese win with a probability of 43.58%. A win for Catanzaro had a probability of 31.11% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cremonese win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.04%) and 0-2 (7.32%). The likeliest Catanzaro win was 1-0 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
0.26) 
-0.33) 
