Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 46.57%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for Ascoli had a probability of 25.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.42%) and 2-1 (8.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.85%), while for an Ascoli win it was 0-1 (9.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spezia would win this match.
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