Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 51.11%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 23.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.49%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.92%), while for a Spezia win it was 0-1 (7.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Parma would win this match.
-0.02) 
0.02) 
