Cremonese conceded the fewest home goals in Serie B's regular season (15), aided by a six-match sequence without conceding, and the hosts should capitalise on their strength in front of their supporters to secure a place in the final.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cremonese win with a probability of 61.47%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Catanzaro had a probability of 16.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cremonese win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.01%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.26%), while for a Catanzaro win it was 0-1 (5.33%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Cremonese would win this match.
0.09) 
-0.16) 
