Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crotone win with a probability of 36.38%. A win for SPAL had a probability of 35.07% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crotone win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.65%) and 2-0 (6.81%). The likeliest SPAL win was 0-1 (11.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
