Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 58.94%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Crotone had a probability of 18.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.37%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.56%), while for a Crotone win it was 0-1 (5.64%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Perugia would win this match.
