Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mantova win with a probability of 48.98%. A win for Salernitana had a probability of 26.98% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mantova win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.47%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Salernitana win was 1-2 (6.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mantova would win this match.
1.02) 
-0.12) 
