Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 38.56%. A win for Frosinone had a probability of 34.36% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.26%) and 2-0 (6.9%). The likeliest Frosinone win was 0-1 (9.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brescia would win this match.
0.05) 
-0.01) 
