It is set to be a close contest between two Lombardy clubs that have never lifted the Coppa Italia, but due to their greater individual quality, Monza should just scrape through to meet Bologna in the last 16.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 42.56%. A win for Brescia had a probability of 31.15% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.82%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Brescia win was 0-1 (8.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monza would win this match.
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