Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Frosinone win with a probability of 42.16%. A win for Ternana had a probability of 32.03% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Frosinone win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.85%) and 0-2 (7.23%). The likeliest Ternana win was 1-0 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
