Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Frosinone win with a probability of 36.78%. A win for Monza had a probability of 35.58% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Frosinone win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.92%) and 2-0 (6.66%). The likeliest Monza win was 0-1 (10.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Frosinone would win this match.
