Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 57.91%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Frosinone had a probability of 20.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.01%) and 2-0 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.95%), while for a Frosinone win it was 1-2 (5.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Monza would win this match.
0.21) 
-0.24) 
