Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palermo win with a probability of 40.71%. A win for Perugia had a probability of 31.46% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palermo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.31%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Perugia win was 0-1 (10.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palermo would win this match.
4.37) 
-4.41) 
