Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 50.93%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Parma had a probability of 23.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.78%) and 2-1 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.12%), while for a Parma win it was 0-1 (7.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Perugia would win this match.
