Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 51.27%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Perugia had a probability of 23.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.87%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.09%), while for a Perugia win it was 0-1 (7.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brescia would win this match.
