Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 40.26%. A win for Ternana had a probability of 34.38% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.7%) and 0-2 (6.58%). The likeliest Ternana win was 1-0 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.
