Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 48.93%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Sudtirol had a probability of 24.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.75%) and 2-1 (8.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.54%), while for a Sudtirol win it was 0-1 (8.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spezia would win this match.
0.13) 
-0.08) 
