Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sudtirol win with a probability of 36.89%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 34.23% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sudtirol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.63%) and 2-0 (7.01%). The likeliest Spezia win was 0-1 (11.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.
-0.8) 
0.11) 
