Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sudtirol win with a probability of 39.13%. A win for Salernitana had a probability of 33.5% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sudtirol win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.27%) and 2-0 (7.13%). The likeliest Salernitana win was 0-1 (10.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.95%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sudtirol would win this match.
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