Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 47.29%. A win for Luzern had a probability of 29.21% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.19%) and 0-2 (7.1%). The likeliest Luzern win was 2-1 (7.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Basel in this match.